Wellesley High School Project
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High school enrollment is projected to peak in 2017 at approximately 1,500 students based upon the most likely enrollment projection.
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Background
This year there are 1,212 students enrolled in Wellesley High School, and the ten-year projection calls for 1,517 students attending the high school in 2017. Long-term enrollment projections beyond ten years are not statistically reliable because of significant variables. However, according to an 18 year projection for Wellesley High School based on the same method, when children born between September 1, 2005 and August 31, 2006 enter ninth grade in September 2020 the high school enrollment will be 1,267, a number that exceeds this year’s enrollment. If peak enrollment occurs in 2017, the subsequent enrollment decline appears to be gradual. The high school will need, for many years, more classrooms and larger common spaces than are available in the existing high school building.
Approach to Analyzing the Cost Implications
The committee decided to determine how much the space requirements would change if the school was sized for 1,300 students instead of 1,500 and what would have to be done in the smaller school to accommodate the 1,500 student “peak” enrollment.
The “marginal cost” savings were estimated for the design and construction of a 1,300 v. 1,500 student school. Marginal cost is the reduction in the total project cost (before considering reimbursement, if any, from the State) based on an enrollment plan for 1,300 students instead of the projected 1,500.
Consideration of space requirement planning variables for enrollments of 1,300 or 1,500 students were categorized as follows:Marginal Cost Reductions
Listed below are estimated design and construction reductions related to building for 1,300 students instead of for 1,500 students. Details are contained in the attached Appendix 1.
Variable Cost Reductions in cafeteria eating space, library
reading room, auditorium seating, performing arts,
practice spaces, etc. $1,500,000
Directly Related Costs to build 12 fewer classrooms and
install 200 fewer lockers $3,100,000
Total Cost Reductions $4,600,000
Our architects and our consultant have reviewed these estimates and concur that they are reasonable working figures.
Operational Considerations when Enrollment is at the Peak
Two operational challenges will occur when enrollment materially exceeds the capacity of a 1,300-student school:
Little could be done to relieve group area capacity constraints because it would be practically impossible to make additions to a number of spaces that are imbedded throughout the building. While some “squeezing in” could occur as enrollment increases, a point would soon be reached where limiting participation or use would be necessary.
The classroom space shortage could be handled with a combination of the following:
Most of the classes with fewer students than the standard serve students who require extra instructional attention to keep up or those who are enrolled in advanced foreign language instruction. The learning labs could be converted to classrooms but at the expense of space for small group project work, technology labs, and interdisciplinary project spaces, all of which are necessary to support teaching methods that our visioning teams anticipate will increase in the future.
Building additions to the school under a separate design, permitting, procurement and construction process will be far more costly than building to accommodate larger numbers within the original project. Our architects have expressed doubt that future additions are even possible, due to concerns about flood plain permitting and student safety.
Modular construction, although less expensive than the semi-permanent, attached units recently added at Schofield and Fiske elementary schools, still will cost approximately $250,000 per classroom, or a total of $3,000,000 if all 12 classrooms omitted from the design are required. MSBA regulations are clear that modular classrooms will not qualify for reimbursement unless needed as temporary space within a new construction or renovation project.
Extending the schedule to include more periods per day is addressed in a separate position paper which concludes that at most 11% of the classrooms could be saved by adjusting the schedule, but at the expense of operating the school fully utilized from 7:30 am to 2:30 pm. Doing so would leave no time for individualized student/parent/teacher meetings, meetings of student organizations, and review classes for MCAS, etc. If the schedule is extended, approximately 12% of students would have an unassigned period during the day, but it would still be necessary to house and supervise them somewhere within the facility.
Conclusions and Recommendations
Although we are confident in the projection of a 1,500 student peak enrollment, it is possible that enrollment could exceed the projection. Other communities have experienced increased enrollments upon completion of major high school construction or renovations. (“If you build it, they will come.”) A school sized for 1,300 would immediately create crowding. Any enrollment beyond the projection of 1,500 students would exacerbate existing overcrowding.
While it is possible to “make due” to some degree, we will require a significantly increased capacity through the installation of modular classrooms or new construction before 2016 unless the Town is willing to accept a significant degradation of educational program delivery which will impact several four-year “generations” of high school students. Assuming that the cafeteria, library reading room, and performing arts rooms are initially sized for 1,500 students (at a cost of approximately $1.6 million), the classroom count issue would still remain.
The net cost calculation appears below:
Project cost reduction: 12 fewer classrooms and 200 lockers
(before possible MSBA Reimbursement) $3.1M
Modular costs: design, acquire and install 10 modular classrooms (assumes
reclaiming two classroom spaces from elsewhere in the building) and 200 lockers.
The modular units would not be as permanent as those recently acquired and
attached to the Fiske and Schofield elementary schools. $2.6M
Net savings $.5M
The “net savings” would become an “additional cost” for modulars if the original project receives State MSBA reimbursement and the subsequent acquisition of modular classrooms does not.
Our consultants and architects have advised that the cost to construct the additional classrooms in the future rather than to purchase modular classrooms would be substantially more than the $3.1 million marginal cost to build classrooms as part of the main project. They also have serious reservations about the subsequent permitting and construction process. They base this word of caution on the wetland permitting process and difficulty of constructing more classrooms on the constrained site while school is in session.
The Flex Space Alternative
Most school districts face cyclical enrollment changes due to gradual changes in town demographics. They also struggle with the most cost effective solution to accommodate the cycle. The “Flex Space” alternative is a creative solution. Under this alternative, seven classrooms (one from each curriculum area) would be located in a building wing or area that can be isolated from the rest of the school with its own entrance and parking area. The rooms will be slightly larger than a regular classroom (1,000 vs. 850 sf) and a handicapped restroom will be in the classroom or nearby.
As enrollment declines, these classrooms would become available for other revenue generation uses or to accommodate other temporary or permanent space needs within town government. Their larger size and bathrooms will enhance the demand for these spaces. Wellesley Public Schools has in the past leased space in the middle school. TEC (The Education Cooperative) or other similar groups could be a likely renter.
Conclusion and School Committee Position
We accept that enrollment cycle variability is a reality that Wellesley and other school systems must deal with effectively. While the concept of building for a smaller enrollment than projected peak has appeal, it ignores the enrollment cycle reality. Our financial analysis leads us to recommend that building the large group spaces to accommodate a 1,500 enrollment is a fiscally prudent thing to do.
Secondly, while it is true that our enrollment projections indicate 1,500 students 10 years from now, the overall variables to enrollment are likely to result in a larger enrollment. The variables include:
Building classrooms to a planned enrollment of 1,300 students would create serious overcrowding necessitating expensive solutions to solve the problem later on. We would have no ability to absorb enrollments that exceed projections.
The high school should be sized to accommodate a projected student population cycle with methods and expectations of utilizing available space when, and if it becomes available. The flex space concept has merit from both educational and financial standpoints. Therefore, if practical, flex space should be included in the final design for Wellesley High School.
The School Committee evaluated this issue with a focus on its impact regarding quality of education and finances. The School Committee believes that building for less than peak enrollment would have an adverse impact on quality of education and negative financial consequences. Therefore, the School Committee strongly supports building a 1,500 student school.
Approved by School Committee
March 13, 2007